Initial Wyoming Spring 2014 Snowmelt Flood Potential Outlook

Following is the first snow melt forecast of the 2014 Winter.

Initial Wyoming Spring 2014 Snowmelt Flood Potential Outlook---January 24, 2014

Quick Synopsis:

Mountain snowpack and associated snow water equivalents (SWEs) across Wyoming were generally above average by the middle of January.  SWEs at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations (8,000’ – 9.500’) were the highest across northeastern Wyoming at 120 to 145 percent of median; while across southwestern Wyoming, SWEs were 85 to 95 percent of median at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations.

This outlook is based on various diverse hydrological factors such as snow water equivalents (SWEs) in the mountain snowpack, basin morphology (i.e. how basins respond to snowmelt), extent of burn scars from 2012 and 2013 fires, amount of bark beetle kill, and likely temperature and precipitation trends during late spring/early summer.                                          

 HIGHLIGHTS:

…Moderate potential for flooding associated with snowmelt is expected across various headwater streams along the Powder River Drainage as well as along eastern portions of the Big Horn Basin.  Streams with the highest potential for flooding include the Middle Fork of the Powder River (Kaycee), Medicine Lodge Creek, Ten Sleep Creek (Ten Sleep), and Clear Creek (Buffalo)…

… Moderate potential for flooding associated with snowmelt is also expected along the Little Snake River near Baggs and along the Encampment River near Riverside…

…All other of headwater basins across Wyoming can expect a generallylow potential for flooding due to springtime snowmelt...

The next graphical outlook will be issued around the 25^th of February. 

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Other hydrological information for Wyoming can be found at the NOAA hydrology website:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/riw/?n=snowpack

Monthly Wyoming Hydrologic Summary and Graphics:

(updated monthly around the 15^th of every month)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/hydro_report.pdf

Wyoming Drought Information Page:

(updated at least once a month)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/riw/?n=drought

Wyoming Graphical Water Supply Outlook:

(updated by the 15^th of every month—January-June)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/watersupply.png

Wyoming Average Precipitation by Basin:

 (updated monthly)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/wyomingprecip.png

Wyoming Spring Snowmelt Runoff Flood Potential Graphic:

(updated by the 25^th of the month---January-May)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/floodoutlook.png

Current and Forecast Wyoming Streamflows and/or River Stages:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=riw

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/wy/nwis/rt

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The current Wyoming Spring 2014 Snowmelt Runoff Flood Potential Outlook graphic: