Thursday, May 30, 2013

Weekend Will Bring Warmer,Drier Weather

Following is the link to the Weather Summary  through the weekend ahead, prepared by the Riverton Forecast Office.

Weekly Weather Video

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Snow?

Memorial  Day will see the beginning of a change in the weather for Star Valley, leading to a rather unsettled week ahead. An unseasonably strong jet stream will be shifting eastward from the Pacific Ocean across the western states.  This will bring a turn to colder and wetter for much of the area from Idaho/Wyoming northward.

Here is a series of forecast charts for the 250 mb level(jet stream level) depicting this change.

Sunday evening 5/26/13
Monday evening 5/27/13

Tuesday evening 5/28/13
Wednesday evening 5/29/13
Thursday evening 5/30/13
The strong jet moves from the Pacific and by mid week has resulted in a large trough centered over Wyoming, bringing with it much cooler air and several periods of showers and thundershowers.  These will first show up mainly to the north and west of Wyoming on Monday  as the air mass gradually moistens and begins to cool.   Tuesday and Wednesday will see more widespread showers as the upper trough develops and the jet stream crosses the Western states to the south of Wyoming.

Here are a series of surface charts and model forecast precipitation.
Monday evening 5/27/13
Tuesday evening 5/28/13
Wednesday evening 5/29/13
Thursday evening 5/30/13
It is quite apparent that precipitation will affect a wide area surrounding Wyoming this coming week.  The total precipitation forecast by the NWS for the next 5 days includes significant amounts as far south as western Wyoming, with a very wet week in store from Montana eastward into the Plains.

Total precipitation expected from Sunday to Friday of this week.

There is no doubt it will be cold enough for snow in the higher elevations of western Wyoming by mid week, with possible significant totals above 8-9000 feet. A mixture of rain and snow is possible as low as the floor of Star Valley by mid-week during the overnight and morning hours.  However any real accumulations are not expected at this time.

Travel into higher elevations such as Yellowstone NP, Wind Rivers and across the recently opened Bear Tooth Pass could definitely be impacted later this week.



Friday, May 24, 2013

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Moore Tornado discussed by Dr. Jim Steenburg U of U and Dr. Jeff Masters U of W

There are two excellent blogs on the EF5 Moore tornado.  I have linked to their post for those interested in an insightful  discussion on the Tornado and its development

Jim Steenburgs Moore Tornado Discussion

Jeff Masters Moore Tornado Discussion

Rainfall Summary for the Period May 15-20

Rain Returns to the Cowboy State
Showers and some thunderstorms have brought much needed rain to Western and Central Wyoming last Wednesday night (May 15th) through this past Monday (May 20th).  The table below reflects final rainfall totals.

The following are Rainfall totals  for the period May 15-20.

Final Rainfall Totals 
CountyStation Name                 Rainfall
LincolnAfton              1.77
Lincoln3 SE Bedford1.73
LincolnStar Valley Ranch 1.70
Lincoln5 SSE Smoot1.56


Lincoln1 SW Afton0.70
LincolnFossil Butte0.48
Lincoln21 NNW Kemmerer0.29



Big Horn2 SSW Lovell0.51
Big HornGreybull0.43
Big HornGreybull/South Big Horn Air0.38
Big HornShell0.33
FremontJeffrey City1.74
Fremont6 SW Lander1.58
FremontLander1.29
FremontLander Airport1.27
Fremont9 SSE Lander1.23
FremontLander1.16
FremontHudson1.17
Fremont10 WNW Dubois0.92
Fremont6 SE Lander0.90
FremontRiverton Downtown0.83
FremontRiverton Airport0.79
Fremont2 N Lander0.68
FremontBurris0.63
FremontDubois0.40
FremontBoysen Dam0.31
Fremont1 WSW Lander0.18
Hot Springs1 SW Thermopolis1.11
Hot Springs9 NE Thermopolis0.99
Hot SpringsThermopolis1.46
Hot SpringsKirby1.23
Hot SpringsThermopolis0.96
JohnsonBuffalo Airport1.04
Johnson20 S Buffalo0.93
JohnsonBilly Creek0.82
Johnson17 NNW Kaycee0.61
Johnson4 SSW Buffalo0.66
JohnsonBuffalo0.67
JohnsonBuffalo0.43
Johnson17 E Kaycee0.07



Natrona3 SW Casper3.96
Natrona4 WSW Casper2.55
Natrona2 S Casper2.60
Natrona1 SW Casper2.39
Natrona4 WSW Casper2.28
Natrona4 SW Casper2.22
Natrona11 ESE Casper2.05
NatronaCasper Near Airport1.56
NatronaCasper Airport1.58
Natrona10 WSW Casper1.36
Natrona11 WSW Casper1.34
NatronaMidwest1.02
NatronaCasper 2.45
Natrona12 NE Lysite0.21
NatronaCasper1.09
ParkCody Area1.42 - 1.89
Park3 NE Sunshine1.85
Park3 NE Clark1.56
ParkPowell Area0.86 - 1.20
ParkCrandall Creek1.02
ParkMeeteetse0.85
SubletteDaniel Fish Hatchery0.76
Sublette14 NW Pinedale0.44
Sublette13 SE Pinedale0.48
SubletteBoulder Rearing Station0.33
SubletteBig Piney Airport0.25
Sweetwater1 W Rock Springs1.06
Sweetwater1 E Rock Springs1.06
Sweetwater7 SSE Rock Springs0.91
SweetwaterGreen River1.00
Sweetwater38 NW Superior1.00
Sweetwater5 N Farson0.85
SweetwaterRock Springs Airport0.36
SweetwaterBuckboard Marina0.19
Sweetwater1 S Rock Springs0.29
Teton5 WNW Moran1.09
Teton4 SSW Jackson0.82
TetonMoose0.77
Teton2 NE Teton Village0.75
TetonJackson0.74
TetonMoose0.67
Teton3 WNW Jackson0.31
Washakie16 SSE Ten Sleep0.66
Washakie8 SW Worland0.48
Washakie5 NNW Ten Sleep0.39
WashakieWorland ASOS0.35
YellowstoneSnake River Ranger Station1.53
YellowstoneLake Yellowstone1.07
YellowstoneOld Faithful Ranger Station1.03
YellowstoneTower Falls Ranger Station0.79
YellowstoneYellowstone East Entrance0.47
YellowstoneLamar Ranger Station0.57

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Moore Oklahoma Tornado


A devastating EF5 tornado struck Moore Oklahoma the afternoon of May 20, 2013.  There has been extensive media coverage including videos etc.  This post will provide a look at the radar data that was used to provide the life-saving warnings.

Following is the path of the EF5 tornado along with the additional two devastating tornado paths that have struck the Moore community in the past 14 years.






Tracks of 3 major tornados that have hit Moore OK since 1999.













The Oklahoma City Doppler radar shows both the reflectivity and velocity signatures at the time when the  EF5 damage was occurring.


The velocity image on the right shows the intense velocity couplet, while the reflectivity image on the left shows the huge debris ball about the time the tornado was destroying the Plaza Towers Elementary School.

Here is a link that will provide a time lapse of both the velocity and reflectivity of the storms as it track from Newcastle eastward across Moore OK.

Radar animation of the Twin Lakes 88-D radar


The official statement issued by the Norman Forecast Office Tuesday follows

Public Information Statement Issued by NWS Norman
for the Tornado Outbreak of May 20, 2013

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 5/20/2013 NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO EVENT - 
UPDATE 3... 

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY HAS NOW RATED THE NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO AS EF5... 

.OVERVIEW...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DISPATCHED FOUR DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS TO 
THE PATH OF THE NEWCASTLE/MOORE OK TORNADO. NEW STATEMENTS WILL BE 
ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THESE TEAMS REPORT FINDINGS. THIS 
INFORMATION REMAINS PRELIMINARY AND THE INFORMATION HERE COULD 
CHANGE. 

.NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO  
 
RATING:                  EF5 
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:     200-210 MPH 
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:   17 MILES 
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:    1.3 MILES 
FATALITIES:              N/A 
INJURIES:                N/A

START DATE:              MAY 20 2013
START TIME:              2:45 PM CDT 
START LOCATION:          4.4 W  NEWCASTLE /GRADY COUNTY /OK
START LAT/LON:           35.2580 / -97.6775

END DATE:                MAY 20 2013
END TIME:                3:35 PM CDT
END LOCATION:            4.8 E OF MOORE OK /CLEVELAND COUNTY /OK
END LAT/LON:             35.3409 / -97.4007
    
SURVEY SUMMARY: EXPERTS SURVEYING IN MOORE HAVE DETERMINED DAMAGE IS 
EF5 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OVER 200 MPH. FOUR SURVEY TEAMS CONTINUE TO 
INSPECT DAMAGE FROM THIS LONG TRACK TORNADO. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS 
FOUND AROUND 4.4 MILES WEST OF NEWCASTLE...SOUTH OF TECUMSEH ROAD 
ALSO KNOWN AS NW 16TH STREET AND EAST LAKE ROAD. THE TORNADO TRACKED 
NE TO THE INTERSTATE 44 BRIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THEN TOOK 
A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH MOORE. TORNADO DAMAGE ABRUPTLY ENDS 
0.3 MILES EAST OF AIR DEPOT ROAD AND N OF SE 134TH ST. 

INITIALLY PRODUCING EF0 AND EF1 DAMAGE THE STORM INTENSIFIED VERY 
RAPIDLY IN 4 MILES OR AROUND 10 MINUTES PRODUCING EF4 DAMAGE BEFORE 
REACHING INTERSTATE 44. NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF EF4 DAMAGE WITH SOME 
AREAS NOW DETERMINED AT EF5 DAMAGE...THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE EF 
SCALE...WITH OVER 200 MPH WINDS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SUCH AS MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WILL BE UPDATED
AS THE TEAMS COMPLETE THEIR SURVEYS.
 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Funnel Cloud Star Valley?

This photo was taken at 5:15pm Thursday looking west at the intersection of Highway 89 and Cedar Road near Star Valley Ranch.  Little if any rotation was observed and it dissipated shortly after photo.




Earthquake Magnitude Lowered to a 3.6


2013 Spotter Training Thursday May 16th



The annual SpotterTraining conducted by the Riverton Forecast Office is being presented in Afton at the Civic Center today, Thursday May 16th at 6PM.  It is an excellent presentation on how to identify Severe Thunderstorms.


Supercell Thunderstorm
Supercell Thunderstorm

The National Weather Service relies on trained volunteers to supplement doppler radar information when severe storms and tornadoes threaten. These dedicated individuals volunteer their time to learn about and detect severe weather. Their valuable cooperation is important in the warning process. Weather reports from trained spotters are used along with doppler radar data to issue warnings of tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and flash floods.

skywarnSevere Weather Spotter Talk Schedule

Below is a listing of upcoming severe weather spotter talks...

  

May, 2013 - Upcoming
DayCity, StateTimeLocation
16Afton, WY
(Lincoln County)
6:00pm MDTCivic Center 150 South Washington
Contact Information: Bill.Murrell@noaa.gov
21Lander, WY
(Fremont County)
6:00pm MDTBLM, 1335 Main Street
Contact Information: katy.branham@noaa.gov
23Big Piney, WY
(Sublette County)
6:00pm MDTBig Piney/Marbleton Fire Hall, 203 Main Street in Marbleton
Contact Information: Bill.Murrell@noaa.gov

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

4,0 Earthquake Rocks Star Valley

An earthquake occurred around 11:23 PM MDT just to the west of Star Valley.  The preliminary strength from the USGS was magnitude 4.0 on the Richter Scale. The epicenter was about 10 miles WNW of Afton WY.  It was felt at Star Valley Ranch with two sharp jolts.


Sunday, May 12, 2013

Near Record Warmth on Monday will speed up Snow Melt





Temperatures in Star Valley will likely reach into the low 80's on Monday after a perfect Mothers Day Sunday with 70's. At Star Valley Ranch the warmth has quickly pushed the Aspens into leafing out the past couple of days.




 





Near-record highs for Monday


A warm ridge of high pressure is forecasted to be over Wyoming on Monday, May 13. This will result in possible record high temperatures across much of the area.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
LocationForecasted High Temperature °FCurrent Record Temperature °F / Year
Casper - Natrona County International Airport7987 / 1960
Lander - Hunt Field7986 / 1960
Riverton - Downtown8089 / 1962
Rock Springs - Sweetwater County Municipal Airport7782 / 1960
Worland - Municipal Airport8392 / 1960
    
Monday, May 13, 2013
LocationForecasted High Temperature °FCurrent Record Temperature °F / Year
Casper - Natrona County International Airport8787 / 2001
Lander - Hunt Field8586 / 2001, 1988
Riverton - Downtown8688 / 2007
Rock Springs - Sweetwater County Municipal Airport8180 / 1996
Worland - Municipal Airport9092 / 2001


Also of concern heading into Monday will be rising water levels in some of the area rivers/creeks.  Temperatures will be rising consecutively over the weekend, so increased snowmelt is expected. The Spring Snowmelt Flood Potential Outlook in addition to the latestWater Supply Outlook, will help identify those areas that may be more susceptible for these expected water rises.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Summer Like Temperatures by Monday?

The video briefing for the next several days promises temperatures rising to near summer like levels by Monday!.

Weather Briefing From Riverton WFO

Monday, May 6, 2013

Spring Snowstorms Come Through for Wyoming

It has been a very beneficial Spring snow season for all of Wyoming this year.  At Star Valley Ranch the total of 172 inches since October 1, 2012 compares closely with last years 175 inches.

Of more importance are the snow pack in the mountains which are just now beginning the melting process as temperatures warm.  Following are the graphs for both the Willow Creek and Cottonwood Creek SNOTELS in the nearby Salt Range.

Willow Creek SNOTEL
Cottonwood Creek SNOTEL

While western Wyoming has fared well  the eastern portion of the state has show remarkable improvements due to several big storms, particularly in April.

Following are two maps, the first the snow pack as of March 1st and the other, May 1st.  The improvements in the eastern portion of the state are dramatic!




Thursday, May 2, 2013

Weekend Weather Briefing and Storm Summary

Riverton WFO is providing their weekly briefing of the upcoming weekends weather.  It can accessed through the following link

Weekly Video Weather

Additionally Riverton WFO has issued a summary of the most recent storm that affected the Cowboy State.

Summary of the May Snow storm