Tornado Outbreak Forecast for Sunday Novermber 17th

A very strong storm moving across the Central States this weekend is expected to result in an Outbreak of Severe Thunderstorms, including possible damaging tornadoes with the High Risk area issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

The area of greatest tornado and wind damage threat follows.

Probability of tornadoes Sunday 

Probability of Damaging Winds Sunday

The stippled area above indicates the threat of strong tornadoes and very damaging winds.

Following is the discussion of the threat from the Storm Prediction Center

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
   AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting
   the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of
   the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through
   early tonight.

   The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

          Illinois
          Indiana
          Northern and Western Kentucky
          Lower Michigan
          Ohio
          Southeast Wisconsin

   Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will
   also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas,
   Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the
   Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.

   A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120
   knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the
   Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this
   occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will
   rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern
   Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.

   East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will
   spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to
   very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central
   United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the
   jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for
   severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving
   cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi
   and Ohio Valleys.

   Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and
   character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of
   the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of
   producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths
   of damaging surface winds.  

   The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive
   lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging
   winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early
   Monday.

   State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially
   very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to
   review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio,
   television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings,
   and statements later today.

   ..Corfidi.. 11/17/2013

A Particularly Dangerous Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of the

below area this Sunday morning.