500 mb Analysis Saturday Evening 4/7/12 |
This time of year there is always a question as to when the runoff from the mountain snow melt will commence. Looking at the conditions in the Salt River Range, particularly at the Willow Creek SNOTEL site as of Saturday evening suggests that the snow pack melting is about on a normal schedule:
While slightly below normal the SWE(snow water equivalent) has only dropped less than 10 percent from the peak at the end of March, even though there has been several warm days.
While the actual snow depth has diminished close to 30 percent since early March, the snow density has steadily increased(compacted).
Examining the river gauge on the Salt near Etna for the past week show a gradual decrease from a high point on 4/1. The projected stages of little change for the coming week
seem reasonable as the trough off the west coast moves into the interior west by weeks end.
500 mb forecast Mid day Friday 4/13/12 |
The longer range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center from Friday until the first of the following week suggest a wet, relatively mild period.
This is a forecast period that needs to be look at with suspicion as models, particularly in the Spring, when systems begin to slow down, diminish in skill
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