NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 410 AM MDT SUN MAR 27 2016 ...VERY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .A POTENT SPRING STORM MAY BRING VERY ABUNDANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED WEST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES- UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN- SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PINEDALE...LA BARGE...BIG PINEY... FARSON...KEMMERER...COKEVILLE 410 AM MDT SUN MAR 27 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BECOMING STEADIER AND HEAVIEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. * SNOW AMOUNTS...13 TO 17 INCHES IN THE SALT AND WYOMING RANGE AND THE WEST SLOPE OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. 6 TO 12 INCHES LOWER ELEVATIONS. * MAIN IMPACT...HIGHWAYS WILL BECOME SLICK AND SNOW PACKED. * OTHER IMPACTS...SOUTH PASS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS CAUSING BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Sunday, March 27, 2016
VERY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Notice Disk Drive Out
The disk drive that provides much of the data for Starvalleyweather.com needs replaced. Until the new drive is installed and running, much of the data feeding the web site will be unavailable. Current conditions, web cameras, and the blog will be unaffected.
Following is the latest forecast as of 9am Saturday for Star Valley
Following is the latest forecast as of 9am Saturday for Star Valley
STAR VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH... THAYNE 624 AM MDT SAT MAR 26 2016 .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 38. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS 11 TO 15. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 43. .SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD. CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 29. .MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 38. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 16. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 0219 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 ...UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
A SPRING STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW OVER THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED MONDAY EVENING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE END TIME FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM AS EARLY AS 7 AM TUESDAY TO ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. NOTE...SNOTELS (SNOW TELEMETRY) ARE REMOTE SENSING SITES IN HIGH MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS. SNOWFALL DATA FROM SNOTELS ARE ESTIMATED BASED ON SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. LOCATION SNOWFALL
LINCOLN COUNTY... WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. 5 SSE SMOOT... 10 INCHES. 3 SE BEDFORD... 6 INCHES. COMMISSARY RIDGE... 6 INCHES. KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. 5 NNE THAYNE... 4.5 INCHES. BLIND BULL SUMMIT... 4 INCHES. SMOOT... 4 INCHES. 2 SE THAYNE... 3.8 INCHES. STAR VALLEY RANCH... 3 INCHES. BOX Y RANCH... 2 INCHES. SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. AFTON... 1.9 INCHES. FOSSIL BUTTE... 1.5 INCHES. BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL... 1 INCH.BIG HORN COUNTY... SHELL CREEK SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. FREMONT COUNTY... SOUTH PASS SNOTEL... 18 INCHES. HOBBS PARK SNOTEL... 17 INCHES. DEER PARK SNOTEL... 16 INCHES. ATLANTIC CITY... 15.1 INCHES. 9.5 SW LANDER... 14 INCHES. TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL... 14 INCHES. 6 SW LANDER... 10.3 INCHES. 7 SE LANDER... 10 INCHES. 9 SSE LANDER... 8-10 INCHES. ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. 7 WNW LANDER... 6.2 INCHES. LANDER... 4-6 INCHES. 1 SE LANDER... 6 INCHES. BROOKS LAKE... 6 INCHES. LANDER AIRPORT... 5.5 INCHES. 3 SW LANDER... 5 INCHES. HUDSON... 1.2-3.5 INCHES. 2 W RIVERTON... 3 INCHES. JEFFREY CITY... 3 INCHES. 2 W RIVERTON... 3 INCHES. RIVERTON AIRPORT... 2.6 INCHES. RIVERTON... 2.2 INCHES. COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. LITTLE WARM SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. 10 WNW DUBOIS... 1 INCH. BOYSEN DAM... 1 INCH. 6 N RIVERTON... 0.5 INCHES. HOT SPRINGS COUNTY... THERMOPOLIS... 3 INCHES. OWL CREEK SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. 9 NE THERMOPOLIS... 1.7 INCHES. JOHNSON COUNTY... CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL... 15 INCHES. LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL... 15 INCHES. HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL... 13 INCHES. SOLDIER PARK SNOTEL... 11 INCHES. BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. BUFFALO... 3 INCHES. 4 SSW BUFFALO... 1 INCH. NATRONA COUNTY... CASPER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL... 16 INCHES. RENO HILL SNOTEL... 12 INCHES. GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. 5 SSW CASPER... 5 INCHES. 10 WSW CASPER... 4.5 INCHES. 1 SW CASPER... 4 INCHES. POWDER RIVER... 4 INCHES. 1 SW CASPER... 4 INCHES. CASPER... 2.2 INCHES. MIDWEST... 1 INCH. 2 E EVANSVILLE... 1 INCH. CASPER AIRPORT... 0.8 INCHES. PARK COUNTY... YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. BLACKWATER SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. EVENING STAR SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. KIRWIN SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. 12 SE CODY... 2 INCHES. BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. 5 ESE CODY... 1.5 INCHES. 1 ENE CODY... 1 INCH. 3 NE SUNSHINE... 1 INCH. MEETEETSE... 1 INCH. MARQUETTE SNOTEL... 1 INCH. 26 SW CODY... 0.6 INCHES. CODY... 0.5 INCHES. 4 SE CODY... 0.4 INCHES. SUBLETTE COUNTY... LARSEN CREEK SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. GUNSITE PASS SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. POCKET CREEK SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. ELKHART PARK G.S. SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. PINEDALE... 1.6 INCHES. DANIEL FISH HATCHERY... 1 INCH. EAST RIM DIVIDE SNOTEL... 1 INCH. KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL... 1 INCH. LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. 14 NW PINEDALE... 0.5 INCHES. BONDURANT... 0.2 INCHES. SWEETWATER COUNTY... GREEN RIVER... 1.3-4 INCHES. 3 NW GREEN RIVER... 3 INCHES. WAMSUTTER... 2 INCHES. ROCK SPRINGS... 1-2 INCHES. BUCKBOARD MARINA... 0.5 INCHES. 5 N FARSON... 0.5 INCHES. TETON COUNTY... GRAND TARGHEE - CHIEF JOSEPH... 16 INCHES. TOGWOTEE MOUNTAIN LODGE... 13 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - RAYMER... 11 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - RENDEZVOUS BOWL... 10.5 INCHES. GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - MID MOUNTAIN... 6.5 INCHES. PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. BASE CAMP SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. 3 SSW WILSON... 4.2 INCHES. GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. JACKSON DAM... 3.4 INCHES. SNOW KING... 3 INCHES. SNAKE RIVER STN SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - BASE... 3 INCHES. 2 NE TETON VILLAGE... 2.5 INCHES. 5 NW JACKSON... 2.5 INCHES. 1 NNW ALTA... 2 INCHES. 12 NE JACKSON... 2 INCHES. DARWIN RANCH... 1.6 INCHES. WASHAKIE COUNTY... MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. 27 S TEN SLEEP... 3.1 INCHES. POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. 16 SSE TEN SLEEP... 1.2 INCHES. WINCHESTER... 0.5 INCHES. TEN SLEEP... 0.3 INCHES. YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK... TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. CANYON SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. PARKER PEAK SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. LAMAR RANGER STATION... 0.5 INCHES.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
El Nino-Post Mortem
Dave Steenburgh of the University of Utah discusses the El Nino of 2015-2016 as the winter snows are behind us. The winners and losers. Here in Star Valley it has been about an average snow season thus far but where the real help was needed from El Nino across the Southwest, it has been a disappointment.
Still Waiting for El Nino in the Southwest
Chris Farley always delivered, but even if all other "tropical storms" bow before El Nino, as he suggests above, the 2015/16 "Super" El Nino continues to be a bust for the southwest United States.
Let's go back to a few months ago when we knew a strong El Nino was likely for this winter. At that time, one could find all sorts of graphics like the one below showing the "typical" wintertime pattern associated with El Nino, including the wet southwest.
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| Source: NWS |
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| Source CPC |
Let's fast forward to today. The percent of average precipitation below covers the past 90 days (roughly since just before Christmas). Northern California has done quite well, which is why reservoirs there have recovered, but most of the southwest has been below average during this period.
If we look at snowpack the numbers in the far southwest are really dismal, but even southern Utah, southern Colorado, and northern New Mexico are slipping below average.
 |
| Source: NRCS |
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| Source: NCEP |
Finally, if you are skiing in northern Utah, you should just stop looking at seasonal forecasts altogether. SEASONAL OUTLOOKS ARE UTTERLY AND TOTALLY VALUELESS FOR ANTICIPATING WHAT KIND OF SKI SEASON WE ARE GOING TO HAVE IN NORTHERN UTAH. Next October, don't waste your time on this stuff. Wax your skis and be happy.
Spring Storm to Effect all of Wyoming
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 136 AM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS CONTINUING THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND STRONG WIND EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND STRONG WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT... .A VIGOROUS LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW IN THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW MORNING SNOW SHOWERS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE. JACKSON HOLE-STAR VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...AFTON...ALPINE... STAR VALLEY RANCH...THAYNE 136 AM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY... * TIMING...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...3 TO 6 INCHES WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN STAR VALLEY. * VISIBILITY...UNDER ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * MAIN IMPACT...SLICK ROADS AND SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. SALT RIVER PASS MAY SEE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Monday, March 21, 2016
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 810 PM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND STRONG WIND THEN EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT... .A VIGOROUS LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE WEST TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. JACKSON HOLE-STAR VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...AFTON...ALPINE... STAR VALLEY RANCH...THAYNE 810 PM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY... * TIMING...RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT IN MOST PLACES. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...3 TO 6 INCHES WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN STAR VALLEY. * VISIBILITY...UNDER ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * MAIN IMPACT...SLICK ROADS AND SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. SALT RIVER PASS MAY SEE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Winter Weather Advisory Tonight and Tuesday
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1256 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A VIGOROUS LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES- 1256 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP FROM AROUND 8500 FEET TO THE VALLEY FLOORS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...4 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS RANGING TO 12 INCHES. * VISIBILITY...UNDER ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * MAIN IMPACT...SLICK ROADS AND SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
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