Weekly Weather Briefing

Riverton Forecast Office has issued their weekly weather briefing.  They highlight the potential for a significant winter storm by the middle of next week.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/riw/?n=weatherbriefing

Some Snow, Sun through Weekend

Currently Wyoming, including Star Valley,  is in a northwesterly flow on the east side of a high pressure ridge off the West Coast. Pacific moisture is riding over the top of the ridge and resulting in periods of mostly light snow and cloudiness across Star Valley and surrounding areas.  Following is a water vapor video for the 24 hour period ending Thursday morning.

A weak impulse withing the northwesterly which shows up now east of Star Valley on the video resulted in an about an inch of snow overnight. 

Following is a sequence of 500 mb charts  showing the progression of the high pressure ridge inland this weekend followed by a trough of low pressure.

Thursday morning

Friday morning

Saturday morning

Sunday morning

Another period of mostly light snow will spread across the area by tonight, however some clearing is likely on Friday into Saturday as the ridge moves inland.

Following are meteograms  reflecting the forecast for Star Valley through the coming weekend.

 Temperatures should remain below freezing during daylight hours, however the cloud cover should preclude the below zero nights experienced  earlier this week.

Wyoming Water Supply Outlook-February 11 2012

The most recent water supply outlook indicates all of Wyoming is headed for a below normal runoff.  In Star Valley, the Salt River, while below normal, is in much better condition than much of the southern and eastern portions of the state. Let us hope for a wet Spring!

Wyoming Water Supply Outlook---issued February 11, 2013

...January basin precipitation was 80 to 85 percent of average across Wyoming…

…Mountain snowpack across Wyoming continues to be 80 to 85 percent of average... 

..Well below normal streamflow volumes expected across much of southern Wyoming watersheds...

…Wyoming reservoir storages continue to be near average for early February…

January precipitation across Wyoming was 80 to 85 percent of average. Precipitation numbers varied between 142 percent of normal over the Tongue Basin to 43 percent of normal over the Laramie Drainage.

Mountain snowpack across Wyoming continued to be 80 to 85 percent of normal by early February.  Snowpack "water" numbers and/or SWEs were the highest across western Wyoming—varying between 90 to 105 percent of normal.  SWEs were the lowest across southeastern Wyoming---varying from 35 to 65 percent of normal.

Near normal snowmelt streamflow volumes are expected across major basins across northwestern Wyoming---which includes the Upper Yellowstone, the Snake, and the Shoshone Watersheds.  Near normal (90 to 99 percent) streamflow volumes are also expected across the Upper Wind River Basin.

Well below normal (50 to 75 percent) spring snowmelt volumes are expected for a majority of watersheds across southern Wyoming.

Reservoirs storages across Wyoming are near average for early February.

The latest Wyoming water supply outlook graphic:

Snowfall Totals Feb 8-10

The following is a summary of snowfall total  from the recent storm.  Star Valley as expected was on the northern portion of the heaviest snows.

Total Snowfall February 8-10

County	Station Name	Snowfall
Big Horn	Bone Springs Divide Snotel	4
Big Horn	26 E Lovell	2.5
Big Horn	Shell Creek Snotel	1
Big Horn	Bald Mountain Snotel	1
Fremont	3 SW Lander	20.6
Fremont	9 SSE Lander	17.1
Fremont	3 SW Lander	16.5
Fremont	5 WSW Lander	16
Fremont	Lander Airport	15.7
Fremont	4 SSW Lander	13.2
Fremont	Lander	13
Fremont	6 SE Lander	12.5
Fremont	4 WSW Lander	12
Fremont	1 W Lander	12
Fremont	1 WSW Lander	11.5
Fremont	Riverton	10.5
Fremont	Townsend Creek Snotel	10
Fremont	Hobbs Park Snotel	8
Fremont	Jeffrey City	8
Fremont	2 E Sweetwater Station	8
Fremont	St. Lawrence Alt Snotel	8
Fremont	Lander	7.2
Fremont	South Pass Snotel	7
Fremont	Hudson	7
Fremont	Deer Park Snotel	7
Fremont	2 NE Kinnear	7
Fremont	Riverton ASOS	6.9
Fremont	Riverton	6.8
Fremont	Cold Springs Snotel	6
Fremont	2 W Riverton	6
Fremont	Dubois	6
Fremont	1 E Morton	5.5
Fremont	Dubois	5.5
Fremont	Little Warm Snotel	5
Fremont	1 S Riverton	5
Fremont	2 W Riverton	3.8
Fremont	10 NNE Riverton	3.3
Fremont	Burroughs Creek Snotel	3
Fremont	Brooks Lake Lodge	2.1
Fremont	Castle Creek Snotel	1
Fremont	Burris	0.5
Hot Springs	1 SW Thermopolis	5.5
Hot Springs	9 NE Thermopolis	5.1
Hot Springs	Owl Creek Snotel	5
Hot Springs	1 SW Thermopolis	4
Hot Springs	Thermopolis	3.5
Hot Springs	8 W Thermopolis	3.5
Johnson	Cloud Peak Reservoir Snotel	6
Johnson	Little Goose Snotel	5
Johnson	Bear Trap Meadow Snotel	4
Johnson	Soldier Park Snotel	4
Johnson	Hansen Sawmill Snotel	3
Johnson	Buffalo	1.5
Lincoln	Smoot	15
Lincoln	Spring Creek Divide Snotel	10
Lincoln	Kemmerer	9
Lincoln	Afton	8.4
Lincoln	5 SSE Smoot	8
Lincoln	Turnerville	8
Lincoln	Cokeville	8
Lincoln	Box Y Ranch	8
Lincoln	Fossil Butte	6.8
Lincoln	Salt River Summit Snotel	6
Lincoln	Kemmerer	6
Lincoln	Indian Creek Snotel	6
Lincoln	Commissary Ridge	5
Lincoln	Hams Fork Snotel	5
Lincoln	2 SE Thayne	4.7
Lincoln	21 NNW Kemmerer	4
Lincoln	Cottonwood Creek Snotel	4
Lincoln	Blind Bull Summit	4
Lincoln	Willow Creek Snotel	3
Lincoln	Kelley Ranger Station Snotel	3
Lincoln	Blind Bull Summit Snotel	3
Lincoln	Thayne	2
Natrona	Casper Mountain	16
Natrona	Casper Mountain	14.5
Natrona	Casper Mountain Snotel	12
Natrona	Reno Hill Snotel	12
Natrona	2 S Casper	6
Natrona	Bessemer Bend	5.5
Natrona	10 WSW Casper	5.5
Natrona	2 S Casper	5.5
Natrona	3 SW Casper	5.5
Natrona	Paradise Valley	5.2
Natrona	Casper Airport	5.1
Natrona	4 SW Casper	5.1
Natrona	4 WSW Casper	5
Natrona	11 ESE Casper	4.8
Natrona	3 NNE Casper	4
Natrona	Grave Spring Snotel	4
Natrona	Midwest	2
Park	Marquette Snotel	6
Park	Timber Creek Snotel	4
Park	Kirwin Snotel	2
Park	Blackwater Snotel	2
Park	Evening Star Snotel	2
Park	Pahaska	1
Park	2 WSW Cody	1
Park	5 ESE Cody	1
Park	Wolverine Snotel	1
Park	1 WNW Cody	0.5
Sublette	Triple Peak Snotel	11
Sublette	Snider Basin Snotel	9
Sublette	14 NW Pinedale	5.8
Sublette	Marbleton	5
Sublette	Bondurant	4.1
Sublette	New Fork Lake Snotel	4
Sublette	Daniel Fish Hatchery	4
Sublette	East Rim Divide Snotel	4
Sublette	White Pine Ski Area	3.5
Sublette	Loomis Park Snotel	3
Sublette	Cora	2.1
Sublette	Gunsite Pass Snotel	1
Sublette	Elkhart Park G.S. Snotel	1
Sublette	Kendall Ranger Station Snotel	1
Sublette	Big Sandy Opening Snotel	1
Sublette	Boulder Rearing Station	1
Sweetwater	Wamsutter	8-9
Sweetwater	7 SSE Rock Springs	2.8
Sweetwater	1 W Rock Springs	2.6
Sweetwater	38 NW Superior	2.5
Sweetwater	1 S Rock Springs	2.2
Sweetwater	1 E Rock Springs	2.2
Sweetwater	Buckboard Marina	1.5
Sweetwater	Green River	1.1
Teton	3 SSW Wilson	3.2
Teton	Jackson Hole-Raymer	3
Teton	Jackson Hole-Rendezvous Bowl	3
Teton	Grand Targhee-Chief Joseph	2.2
Teton	Snake River Stn Snotel	2
Teton	Darwin Ranch	2
Teton	Granite Creek Snotel	1
Teton	Togwotee Pass Snotel	1
Teton	Snow King Ski Area	1
Teton	Jackson	1
Teton	4 SSW Jackson	1
Teton	Moose	0.5
Teton	2 NE Teton Village	0.3
Washakie	16 SSE Ten Sleep	6.5
Washakie	Middle Powder Snotel	3
Washakie	27 S Ten Sleep	2
Washakie	5 NNW Ten Sleep	1.5
Washakie	Powder River Pass Snotel

Record Connecticut Snow

Now that the New England snow storm has moved east into the Atlantic, pictures and videos are making it onto the Internet.  It was a very impressive event, setting records in amount of snowfall in many parts of Southern New England.

A time-lapse video of the snow piling up was set up with a camera and a clock on the outdoor patio at WSHB TV News in Hartford Connecticut before the snow started.

Here is the link to this  impressive video 

http://bit.ly/12C5hAP

Approaching Storm Video

Riverton Forecast Office has prepared a video on the approaching snow storm for the state of Wyoming.  Heaviest snow amounts are expected to be south and east of Star Valley.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/riw/?n=weatherbriefing

Snow Returning

The last four days of January saw around two feet of snow across much of Star Valley, but so far February has seen little snow and quite a bit of winter sun.  Below is a graph from the Thayne ES for the past several weeks.  The  data displayed is the solar energy and temperatures for the period from January 9-February 6.

Thayne ES Solar Energy and Temperature

A large upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest this Wednesday Evening  will return at least some snow across Star Valley by this coming weekend

Wednesday evening water vapor image

 

The trough shows up as the 500mb analysis Wednesday evening is overlaid on the infra-red satellite imagery

Wednesday evening  infrared satellite  and 500mb analysis

The models are forecasting the trough to deepen over the western states the next two days with snow spreading eastward. Early indications are that the greatest potential for heavy snow will pass to the south of Star Valley.

The 500mb forecast valid mid day Friday  shows the deepening of the trough.

500mb forecast mid day Friday Feb. 8 2013

The model forecast of precipitation for the 48 hour period through mid day Friday suggest that much of the snow will have occurred to the west and southwest of Star Valley.

48 hour precipitation ending mid day Friday

The following 48 hour period through mid day Sunday sees the strong trough moving eastward into the Plains States with precipitation spreading across much of Wyoming, the heaviest likely south of Star Valley where upper support is located.

500 mb forecast mid-day Sunday Feb.10 2012

48 hour precipitation ending mid day Sunday

An interesting way to look at the forecast weather for Star Valley is an hourly graph of temperatures and precipitation.  The following two graphs show the period from Thursday morning to Saturday morning in the first and then Saturday morning to Monday morning in the second

6am Thursday through 6am Saturday

6am Saturday through 6am Monday

This forecast suggest snow will begin mid day Friday, continuing until early Sunday morning. This forecast also suggests that total snow accumulation will just be a few inches, and this seems reasonable given how far south the main energy with the trough will track.