Weekly Weather Video for Western Wyoming
Weather Video Issued January 30 2015
Friday, January 30, 2015
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Initial Wyoming Spring Flood Potential Outlook
Initial January 2015 Wyoming Spring Flood Potential Outlook----issued January 26, 2015
Quick Synopsis:
Mountain snowpack and associated snow water equivalents (SWEs) across Wyoming were generally near average by late January. SWEs at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations (8,000’ – 9.500’) were the highest across northwestern Wyoming at 110 to 120 percent of median; while across southern Wyoming, SWEs were 70 to 80 percent of median at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations.
This outlook is based on various diverse hydrological factors such as snow water equivalents (SWEs) in the mountain snowpack, basin morphology (i.e. how basins respond to snowmelt), amount of bark beetle kill, low elevation snow depths, and likely temperature and precipitation trends during late spring/early summer.
HIGHLIGHTS:
…Low to Moderate potential for flooding associated with snowmelt is expected across various headwater streams along eastern portions of the Big Horn Basin. Streams with the highest potential for flooding include Medicine Lodge Creek, Ten Sleep Creek (Ten Sleep), and portions of the Nowood River…
…Low to Moderate potential for flooding associated with snowmelt (due to current snow depths) is expected along portions of Hot Springs County…
…All other of headwater basins across Wyoming can expect a generallyLow potential for flooding due to springtime snowmelt...
The next graphical outlook will be issued around the 25th of February.
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The current Wyoming Spring 2015 Snowmelt Runoff Flood Potential Outlook graphic:
Saturday, January 24, 2015
California Drought Going From Bad to Worse
Drought conditions across California are just getting worse as exceptionally warm and dry weather is expected through the remainder of January 2015. Following is a blog posted by Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground summarizing the conditions.
California Drought Worsening During Height of Rainy Season
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:10 PM GMT on January 23, 2015
The Western U.S. winter rainy season has reached its halfway point, and there is only bad news to report for drought-beleaguered California. November through March marks the period when California receives its heaviest rains and snows, thanks to the wintertime path of the jet stream, which dips to the south and brings wet Pacific low pressure systems to the state. The rainy season started out promisingly, with several December storms bringing precipitation amounts close to average for the month over much of the state. Troublingly, though, record-warm ocean temperatures off of the coast meant that the December storms were unusually warm. This resulted in snow falling only at very high elevations, keeping the critical Sierra snow pack much lower than usual. The jet stream pattern shifted during January 2015, bringing disastrously dry conditions to the state. January usually brings 4.19" of rain to San Francisco, but no rain at all has fallen in January 2015 in the city--or over much of Central California. The dryness has been accompanied by near-record warmth at higher elevations in the Sierras, with temperatures at Blue Canyon and South Lake Tahoe averaging nearly 8°F above average for the month of January. As a result, the snowpack in the Sierras--a critical reservoir of water that is used throughout the rest of the year--is abysmally low, running about 30% of normal for this time of year. California's eight largest reservoirs are 33% - 86% below their historical average, and the portion of the state covered by the highest level of drought expanded in mid-January--a very ominous occurrence for the height of the rainy season.
Figure 1. The Enterprise Bridge passes over a section of Lake Oroville that was nearly dry on September 30, 2014, in Oroville, California. Lake Oroville, California's 2nd largest reservoir, was at 49% of average(30% of capacity), the second lowest level on record (behind 1977.) Heavy rains in December 2014 allowed lake levels to recover slightly--as of January 23, 2015 Lake Oroville was at its 7th lowest level of the past 35 years. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.
Figure 2. The same view of Lake Oroville in happier times: July 20, 2011. (Paul Hames/California Department of Water Resources/Getty Images)
The forecast: hot and dry
An intense ridge of high pressure will build in over California this weekend, bringing near-record high temperatures in the low to mid-70s to San Francisco. The all-time hottest January temperature in San Francisco of 73°F, set just last year, could fall on Sunday. The ridge of high pressure will stay entrenched over California during the remainder of January, bringing continued dry conditions. A weak upper-level low pressure system will bring a few rain showers to the state beginning this Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will be generally less than 1/2"--an insignificant drop in a very large, dry bucket. With long-range models showing no shift in the jet stream pattern through the first week of February, California may be on its way to a fourth consecutive bone-dry rainy season--pushing the state into an increasingly dire drought situation.
Figure 3. Time series of the change in drought conditions in California from January 28, 2014 through January 22, 2015. The area covered by the worst category of drought--"Exceptional"--peaked at 58% during the summer of 2014. In December 2014, "Exceptional" drought coverage fell to 32%, thanks to heavy rains, but this area increased again to 39% in mid-January 2015 due to unusual dryness. Image credit: drought.gov.
Related blog post: The State of the California Drought: Still Very Bad, January 13, 2015, by water resources expert Dr. Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute.
Figure 1. The Enterprise Bridge passes over a section of Lake Oroville that was nearly dry on September 30, 2014, in Oroville, California. Lake Oroville, California's 2nd largest reservoir, was at 49% of average(30% of capacity), the second lowest level on record (behind 1977.) Heavy rains in December 2014 allowed lake levels to recover slightly--as of January 23, 2015 Lake Oroville was at its 7th lowest level of the past 35 years. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.
Figure 2. The same view of Lake Oroville in happier times: July 20, 2011. (Paul Hames/California Department of Water Resources/Getty Images)
The forecast: hot and dry
An intense ridge of high pressure will build in over California this weekend, bringing near-record high temperatures in the low to mid-70s to San Francisco. The all-time hottest January temperature in San Francisco of 73°F, set just last year, could fall on Sunday. The ridge of high pressure will stay entrenched over California during the remainder of January, bringing continued dry conditions. A weak upper-level low pressure system will bring a few rain showers to the state beginning this Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will be generally less than 1/2"--an insignificant drop in a very large, dry bucket. With long-range models showing no shift in the jet stream pattern through the first week of February, California may be on its way to a fourth consecutive bone-dry rainy season--pushing the state into an increasingly dire drought situation.
Figure 3. Time series of the change in drought conditions in California from January 28, 2014 through January 22, 2015. The area covered by the worst category of drought--"Exceptional"--peaked at 58% during the summer of 2014. In December 2014, "Exceptional" drought coverage fell to 32%, thanks to heavy rains, but this area increased again to 39% in mid-January 2015 due to unusual dryness. Image credit: drought.gov.
Related blog post: The State of the California Drought: Still Very Bad, January 13, 2015, by water resources expert Dr. Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Weekly Weather Video for Western Wyoming
Western Wyoming will remain in a generally quiet weather pattern as we head into the final week of January. Riverton Forecast Office discusses this in their video look at the weather ahead
Weekly Weather Video for Western Wyoming
Weekly Weather Video for Western Wyoming
Monday, January 19, 2015
Greatest State Snow Depths
Following is a map of greatest snow depths ever recorded by state. It can snow in California, but not much in recent years!
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| Greatest Snow Depth in inches by State |
Saturday, January 17, 2015
More Snow On Sunday
The next in a series of weather systems will spread snow across Western Wyoming later tonight and Sunday. The heaviest is expected to be just north of Star Valley. Following is the Winter Storm Warning issued this Saturday afternoon.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
121 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015
...MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...
.AN PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN WYOMING AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WYZ012-181000-
/O.UPG.KRIW.WS.A.0002.150118T0600Z-150119T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KRIW.WS.W.0002.150118T0600Z-150119T1200Z/
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-
121 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
MST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 AM MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
* SUMMARY AND TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME
STEADIER AND HEAVIER LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON FAVORED WESTERN FACING SLOPES.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SNOW PACKED IN MANY
AREAS. TRAVEL OVER TETON AND TOGWOTEE PASSES MAY BECOME
DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.
Friday, January 16, 2015
3-6 Inches of Snow This Evening
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
...SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STAR VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
.AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE STAR
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WYZ023-170300-
/O.NEW.KRIW.WW.Y.0002.150116T2111Z-150117T0300Z/
STAR VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH...
THAYNE
211 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING.
* SUMMARY AND TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALPINE ALREADY REPORTED 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE
VALLEY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ON THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH VISIBILITY UNDER
ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNDER ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND
ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.
&&
$$
TEAM RIVERTON
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Final Snow Totals for January 4-5 2015
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 111 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2015 ...SNOWFALL TOTALS TOP THREE FEET IN FAR WEST WYOMING... A WINTER STORM BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL IN THE TETONS WHERE A FEW TOTALS TOPPED THREE FEET. MANY OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS COMMONLY RANGED FROM AROUND 8 TO 14 INCHES. INCLUDED HERE IS A SUMMARY TOTAL OF SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOWFALL AT SNOTEL SITES IS ESTIMATED. LOCATION SNOWFALLLINCOLN COUNTY... SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL... 21 INCHES. WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL... 19 INCHES. COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL... 19 INCHES. BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL... 17 INCHES. ALPINE... 16.5 INCHES. 2 SE THAYNE... 13.8 INCHES. 5 NNE THAYNE... 13 INCHES. 5 SSE SMOOT... 13 INCHES. STAR VALLEY RANCH... 12.2 INCHES. INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL... 12 INCHES. COMMISSARY RIDGE... 10 INCHES. SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. BOX Y RANCH... 9 INCHES. KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL... 9 INCHES. BLIND BULL SUMMIT... 8 INCHES. 3 SE BEDFORD... 6 INCHES. AFTON... 5.8 INCHES. HAMS FORK SNOTEL... 4 INCHES.BIG HORN COUNTY... SHELL CREEK SNOTEL... 16 INCHES. BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL... 14 INCHES. BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL... 13 INCHES. SHELL... 5 INCHES. FREMONT COUNTY... BROOKS LAKE... 8 INCHES. BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. CASTLE CREEK SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. SOUTH PASS SNOTEL... 1 INCH. LITTLE WARM SNOTEL... 1 INCH. HOBBS PARK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. DEER PARK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. HOT SPRINGS COUNTY... OWL CREEK SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. JOHNSON COUNTY... CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. SOLDIER PARK SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL... 1 INCH. PARK COUNTY... EVENING STAR SNOTEL... 26 INCHES. WOLVERINE SNOTEL... 19 INCHES. BLACKWATER SNOTEL... 15 INCHES. BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL... 15 INCHES. PAHASKA... 14 INCHES. 3 W WAPITI... 4 INCHES. KIRWIN SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. 2 WSW CODY... 1 INCH. MARQUETTE SNOTEL... 1 INCH. TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. SUBLETTE COUNTY... TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL... 18 INCHES. EAST RIM DIVIDE SNOTEL... 15 INCHES. SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL... 12 INCHES. LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL... 11 INCHES. NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL... 9 INCHES. ELKHART PARK G.S. SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. BONDURANT... 7 INCHES. BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. 14 NW PINEDALE... 5 INCHES. GUNSITE PASS SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. DANIEL FISH HATCHERY... 4 INCHES. 15 WNW DANIEL... 3.5 INCHES. PINEDALE... 2.4 INCHES. BOULDER REARING STATION... 2 INCHES. LARSEN CREEK SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. TETON COUNTY... JACKSON HOLE - RAYMER... 40 INCHES. GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL... 37 INCHES. GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL... 37 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - MID MOUNTAIN... 26 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - RENDEZVOUS BOWL... 22 INCHES. GRAND TARGHEE - CHIEF JOSEPH... 21 INCHES. SNAKE RIVER STATION SNOTEL... 20 INCHES. PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL... 18 INCHES. BASE CAMP SNOTEL... 16 INCHES. TOGWOTEE MOUNTAIN LODGE... 15 INCHES. TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL... 15 INCHES. 2 NE TETON VILLAGE... 11.2 INCHES. SNOW KING... 10.5 INCHES. 1 NNW ALTA... 10 INCHES. MOOSE... 9.8 INCHES. JACKSON... 9.7 INCHES. 12 NE JACKSON... 8.5 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - BASE... 8.5 INCHES. GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. JACKSON DAM... 7.9 INCHES. 5 NW JACKSON... 6 INCHES. 3 SSW WILSON... 6 INCHES. GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. 4 SW JACKSON... 3.9 INCHES. WASHAKIE COUNTY... POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL... 9 INCHES. MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL... 1 INCH. YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK... SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL... 19 INCHES. TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL... 19 INCHES. LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL... 19 INCHES. SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL... 18 INCHES. PARKER PEAK SNOTEL... 18 INCHES. YELLOWSTONE EAST ENTRANCE... 14.5 INCHES. CANYON SNOTEL... 13 INCHES. LAMAR RANGER STATION... 12.5 INCHES. THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL... 11 INCHES. SNAKE RIVER RANGER STATION... 10.5 INCHES. TOWER FALLS RANGER STATION... 3.9 INCHES. MAMMOTH... 3 INCHES.
Monday, January 5, 2015
Snow and Wind Reports as of Noon Monday
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
124 PM MST MON JAN 5 2015
...WIND AND SNOW RETURNED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING...
DEEP MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BROUGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING STARTING
YESTERDAY..SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TODAY...MONDAY. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE TETON MOUNTAINS REPORTED OVER TWO FEET OF SNOW.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS CREATED TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING ON MONDAY. EXISTING SNOW
COVER IS BEING BLOWN AROUND BY THE STRONG WIND REDUCING VISIBILITY
AND CREATING SLICK CONDITIONS. SEVERAL ROADS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING HAVE BEEN CLOSED AND MANY OTHER ROADS HAVE TRAVEL
RESTRICTIONS FOR LIGHTWEIGHT AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. VISIT
WYOROAD.INFO FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES.
...BELOW ARE THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...MONDAY...
LOCATION SNOWFALL
LINCOLN COUNTY... ALPINE... 16.5 INCHES. BOX Y RANCH... 15 INCHES. 2 SE THAYNE... 12.5 INCHES. 5 SSE SMOOT... 12 INCHES. 5 NNE THAYNE... 11.5 INCHES. STAR VALLEY RANCH... 11 INCHES. BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. COMMISSARY RIDGE... 10 INCHES. BLIND BULL SUMMIT... 8 INCHES. WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. AFTON... 4.8 INCHES. SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. HAMS FORK SNOTEL... 1 INCH.BIG HORN COUNTY... SHELL... 3 INCHES. BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. SHELL CREEK SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. FREMONT COUNTY... BROOKS LAKE... 7 INCHES. BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. CASTLE CREEK SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL... 1 INCH. LITTLE WARM SNOTEL... 1 INCH. HOBBS PARK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. DEER PARK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. SOUTH PASS SNOTEL... 1 INCH. HOT SPRINGS COUNTY... OWL CREEK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. JOHNSON COUNTY... CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL... 1 INCH. LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL... 1 INCH. BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL... 1 INCH. PARK COUNTY... EVENING STAR SNOTEL... 14 INCHES. WOLVERINE SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. PAHASKA... 9 INCHES. BLACKWATER SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. 3 W WAPITI... 4 INCHES. KIRWIN SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. MARQUETTE SNOTEL... 1 INCH. TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL... 1 INCH. 2 WSW CODY... 1 INCH. SUBLETTE COUNTY... TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL... 9 INCHES. LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL... 6 INCHES. KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL... 5 INCHES. DANIEL FISH HATCHERY... 4 INCHES. BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. EAST RIM DIVIDE SNOTEL... 4 INCHES. 15 WNW DANIEL... 3.5 INCHES. 14 NW PINEDALE... 3.5 INCHES. ELKHART PARK G.S. SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. PINEDALE... 2.4 INCHES. GUNSITE PASS SNOTEL... 2 INCHES. BOULDER REARING STATION... 2 INCHES. BONDURANT... 1.2 INCHES. TETON COUNTY... JACKSON HOLE - RAYMER... 33 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - MID MOUNTAIN... 24 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - RENDEVOUS BOWL... 22 INCHES. GRAND TARGHEE - CHIEF JOSEPH... 21 INCHES. GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL... 20 INCHES. GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL... 16 INCHES. SNAKE RIVER STN SNOTEL... 11 INCHES. 2 NE TETON VILLAGE... 9.7 INCHES. JACKSON... 9.7 INCHES. PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL... 9 INCHES. TOGWOTEE MOUNTAIN LODGE... 9 INCHES. 12 NE JACKSON... 8.5 INCHES. MOOSE... 8 INCHES. BASE CAMP SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL... 7 INCHES. 5 NW JACKSON... 6 INCHES. 3 SSW WILSON... 6 INCHES. SNOW KING... 6 INCHES. JACKSON HOLE - BASE... 5.5 INCHES. 4 SW JACKSON... 3.9 INCHES. MOOSE... 3 INCHES. GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL... 3 INCHES. 1 NNW ALTA... 2 INCHES. WASHAKIE COUNTY... POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL... 1 INCH. MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL... 1 INCH. YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK... YELLOWSTONE EAST ENTRANCE... 12 INCHES. LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL... 11 INCHES. SNAKE RIVER RANGER STATION... 10.5 INCHES. LAMAR RANGER STATION... 10 INCHES. TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL... 10 INCHES. PARKER PEAK SNOTEL... 9 INCHES. CANYON SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL... 8 INCHES. TOWER FALLS RANGER STATION... 3.6 INCHES. ...BELOW ARE THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS REPORTED BETWEEN 12 MIDNIGHT AND 12 NOON TODAY...MONDAY... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE LAT/LON ...FREMONT COUNTY... 7 SW MUDDY GAP (7380 FT) 88 MPH 0750 AM 01/05 42.34N/107.57W 10 W FORT WASHAKIE (9235 FT) 71 MPH 0901 AM 01/05 42.98N/109.12W JEFFREY CITY (6374 FT) 63 MPH 1003 AM 01/05 42.49N/107.84W DUBOIS (6980 FT) 61 MPH 0759 AM 01/05 43.54N/109.63W BEAVER RIM (6784 FT) 58 MPH 0331 AM 01/05 42.59N/108.29W 2 W SOUTH PASS CITY (8185 FT 56 MPH 0416 AM 01/05 42.48N/108.85W 10 N DUBOIS (8085 FT) 50 MPH 0757 AM 01/05 43.68N/109.61W SOUTH PASS (8491 FT) 44 MPH 0835 AM 01/05 42.51N/108.78W 8 W SOUTH PASS CITY (8120 FT 44 MPH 0750 AM 01/05 42.44N/108.95W 6 S TOGWOTEE PASS (10430 FT) 41 MPH 0600 AM 01/05 43.66N/110.02W CROWHEART (6099 FT) 41 MPH 0802 AM 01/05 43.31N/109.19W RED CANYON (6768 FT) 40 MPH 0435 AM 01/05 42.62N/108.61W ...HOT SPRINGS COUNTY... BOYSEN PEAK (7300 FT) 70 MPH 0555 AM 01/05 43.46N/108.24W ...JOHNSON COUNTY... 12 N KAYCEE (5287 FT) 40 MPH 0516 AM 01/05 43.90N/106.64W ...LINCOLN COUNTY... KEMMERER AIRPORT (7285 FT) 51 MPH 1135 AM 01/05 41.82N/110.56W ...NATRONA COUNTY... 16 S HILAND (6380 FT) 88 MPH 0610 AM 01/05 42.86N/107.27W WYOMING BLVD...CASPER 81 MPH 0636 AM 01/05 2 SE HILAND (6134 FT) 54 MPH 0605 AM 01/05 43.09N/107.32W 7 W ALCOVA (6342 FT) 51 MPH 0600 AM 01/05 42.56N/106.85W CASPER AIRPORT (5320 FT) 47 MPH 0802 AM 01/05 42.91N/106.46W 19 N CASPER (5677 FT) 42 MPH 0740 AM 01/05 43.12N/106.34W 8 S CASPER (7740 FT) 41 MPH 0452 AM 01/05 42.71N/106.35W 1 E CASPER (5334 FT) 41 MPH 0725 AM 01/05 42.83N/106.31W ...PARK COUNTY... 5 WNW CLARK (4659 FT) 113 MPH 0521 AM 01/05 44.92N/109.24W CHIEF JOSEPH HWY (8136 FT) 73 MPH 0810 AM 01/05 44.74N/109.38W 10 WNW CODY (8401 FT) 64 MPH 0440 AM 01/05 44.57N/109.26W 3 E PAHASKA (7500 FT) 47 MPH 0857 AM 01/05 44.49N/109.90W CHIEF JOSEPH HWY MILE 9 46 MPH 0612 AM 01/05 44.85N/109.61W CODY AIRPORT (5100 FT) 45 MPH 0915 AM 01/05 44.52N/109.02W 1 W CLARK (4270 FT) 44 MPH 0810 AM 01/05 44.90N/109.17W ...ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER... MCKINNON (7086 FT) 51 MPH 0916 AM 01/05 41.03N/109.94W ...SUBLETTE COUNTY... 21 W BIG PINEY (8200 FT) 42 MPH 1109 AM 01/05 42.49N/110.53W ...SWEETWATER COUNTY... 15 SE ROCK SPRINGS (7550 FT) 66 MPH 1144 AM 01/05 41.42N/109.04W ROCK SPRINGS AIRPORT (6760 F 59 MPH 0524 AM 01/05 41.59N/109.06W 7 WSW ROCK SPRINGS (6238 FT) 51 MPH 1050 AM 01/05 41.55N/109.33W I 80 - MILE MARKER 142 50 MPH 0855 AM 01/05 41.65N/108.58W 22 NNE GRANGER (6322 FT) 50 MPH 1153 AM 01/05 41.90N/109.85W I 80 - MILE MARKER 184 48 MPH 1106 AM 01/05 41.72N/107.78W I 80 - MILE MARKER 157 46 MPH 0940 AM 01/05 41.63N/108.30W 5 E ROCK SPRINGS (6369 FT) 44 MPH 0155 AM 01/05 41.62N/109.12W I 80 - MILE MARKER 131 43 MPH 1045 AM 01/05 41.68N/108.80W 7 WNW GREEN RIVER (6387 FT) 42 MPH 1027 AM 01/05 41.55N/109.60W 20 ENE OPAL (6556 FT) 42 MPH 0926 AM 01/05 41.94N/110.00W I 80 - MILE MARKER 124 41 MPH 1111 AM 01/05 41.69N/108.90W ...TETON COUNTY... SUMMIT - JACKSON RESORT 69 MPH 0600 AM 01/05 43.59N/110.85W ...TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS... 3 WNW TETON VILLAGE (7913 FT 47 MPH 1100 AM 01/05 43.59N/110.87W ...WASHAKIE COUNTY... 12 ENE TEN SLEEP (8202 FT) 42 MPH 1114 AM 01/05 44.11N/107.22W OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.
Winter Storm Warning in Effect until Tuesday Morning
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
610 AM MST MON JAN 5 2015
...POTENT PROLONGED WINTER STORM FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...
.MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND DEEP
PACIFIC MOISTURE PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAKING FOR VERY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WYZ023-024-052300-
/O.CON.KRIW.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150106T1200Z/
STAR VALLEY-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH...
THAYNE
610 AM MST MON JAN 5 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
TUESDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 30 INCHES THE MOUNTAINS WITH 10 TO
20 INCHES IN THE STAR VALLEY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...ABOVE 8000 FEET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SLICK...SNOWPACKED...WITH POSSIBLE
LARGE DRIFTS COVERING THE ROADWAYS AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON SALT RIVER PASS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Updated-Winter Storm Warning Star Valley
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
937 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2015
...POTENT PROLONGED WINTER STORM FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...
.LIGHT SNOW WILL BE REPLACED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT MOUNTAIN TOP
LEVEL. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND DEEP PACIFIC
MOISTURE PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR VERY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WYZ023-024-051245-
/O.CON.KRIW.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150106T1200Z/
STAR VALLEY-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH...
THAYNE
937 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
TUESDAY...
* SUMMARY AND TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TODAY...WITH GENERAL
24 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE REPLACED BY PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND
INCREASED WINDS LATER TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 30 INCHES THE MOUNTAINS WITH 10 TO
20 INCHES IN THE STAR VALLEY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...ABOVE 8000 FEET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SNOW...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SLICK...SNOWPACKED...WITH POSSIBLE
LARGE DRIFTS COVERING THE ROADWAYS AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON SALT RIVER PASS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.
WINTER STORM WARNING STAR VALLEY
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 137 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2015
...POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...
.LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND GREATLY INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT THIS TIME...PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WYZ001-012-013-023-024-042300-
/O.UPG.KRIW.WS.A.0001.150105T0000Z-150106T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KRIW.WS.W.0001.150105T0000Z-150106T1200Z/
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-
JACKSON HOLE-STAR VALLEY-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE...MAMMOTH...OLD FAITHFUL...
JACKSON...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH...THAYNE
137 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM MST TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* SUMMARY AND TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASED WINDS BEGINNING
TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 6
TO 12 INCHES IN THE JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...ABOVE 8500 FEET...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW...GREATLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SLICK...SNOWPACKED...WITH POSSIBLE
LARGE DRIFTS COVERING THE ROADWAYS AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
First Snowstorm of 2015 On The Way
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
120 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2015
...POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...
.AFTER A SHORT BREAK FROM SNOW TONIGHT...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A
MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND GREATLY INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ON SUNDAY...SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WYZ001-012-013-023-024-032300-
/O.NEW.KRIW.WS.A.0001.150105T0000Z-150106T1200Z/
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-
JACKSON HOLE-STAR VALLEY-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE...MAMMOTH...OLD FAITHFUL...
JACKSON...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH...THAYNE
120 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2015
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* SUMMARY AND TIMING...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
INCREASED WINDS TO BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 6 TO
12 INCHES IN THE JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY
AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SLICK...SNOWPACKED...WITH POSSIBLE LARGE
DRIFTS COVERING THE ROADWAYS AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Weather Video 1st week of 2015
Riverton Forecast Office has posted their weekly video providing hope for relief from the current cold temperatures.
Weekly Weather Briefing Video
Weekly Weather Briefing Video
Cliff Mass, meteorology professor at the University of Washington makes a case for the amazing improvements of weather forecasts in recent history.
Is Numerical Weather Prediction One of Mankind's Greatest Achievements?
Mankind has achieved some marvels during the past several thousand years, from landing on the moon and the construction of the pyramids to modern computers and genetic engineering. But perhaps weather prediction, and particularly numerical weather prediction, deserves to be in the Pantheon of the highest achievements of our species, and this blog will explain why.
Modern weather prediction is perhaps the most cooperative activity of our species. To forecast the weather anywhere on the globe require weather data everywhere on the globe. A disturbance over China today, can be over the U.S. in a few days, and vice versa. Even during the cold war we shared data with China and the Soviet Union. Nearly every nation exchanges its weather data with others, with few exceptions (like North Korea).
Modern weather prediction requires the ability to simulate atmospheric effects on a vast range of scales ranging from the molecular to the planetary. To predict the weather one must deal with the condensation of water vapor on microscopic particles less than a micron (millionth of a meter) in size on one hand to planetary circulations of many thousands of kilometers on the other.
Modern weather prediction uses the world's most powerful computers and the associated model software includes millions of lines of code. Some of the biggest computers in the world are used for weather/climate simulation. For example, the UK Meteorology Office just purchased a 16 petaflop computer from CRAY (a petaflop is a thousand trillion operations per second).
The number of lives saved and the economic value of weather prediction is beyond measure. Superstorm Sandy hit the NY Metro area, home of tens of millions of people, with hurricane-force winds and major coastal flooding. Roughly 150 lost their lives and many of them did so because they ignored the forecasts. A similar storm hit a far more sparsely populated area of eastern Long Island in 1938 and over a thousand people perished. In 1900, a hurricane hit Galveston Texas and 6000 people died. Weather prediction is now an essential tool for farmers and for those that manage our dams and roads, to mention only a few applications. And if the weather becomes more extreme under global warming, improved weather prediction will play a large role in protecting life and property.
The amount of data collected for operational numerical weather prediction is staggering. Petabytes of weather data are streaming to earth from dozens of weather satellites each day. Hundreds of thousands of surface stations, roughly a thousand radiosondes, thousands of ships and buoys, thousands of aircraft, lightning detection networks, and other sensors are reporting each day, adding up to tens to hundreds terabytes of information daily. All this data is distributed around the world, quality controlled, and used to provide a physically consistent description of the three-dimensional atmosphere.
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Modern numerical forecasting went from non-existent in 1950 to highly skillful today. The following chart is my favorite. It shows increasing skill at 3, 5, 7, and 10 days at 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) at one major forecasting center (the European Center, ECMWF). Major increases in skill at each time projection (up is better). But even more impressive is the fact that southern hemisphere forecast skill (the lower lines for each color band) now equals to the northern (which has much surface and upper air observations). The major reason: weather satellites
So during this end-of-year season it is good to reflect on how far we have come in weather prediction, even though we have the potential to push the science and technology much further. And we should not forget the dedicated folks that developed the models, the scientists/engineers that designed the satellites and observing systems, and the human forecasters that interpret and communicate the model output. A huge and expensive enterprise that is worth the investment. And one that has been been a successful partnership between the government and private sectors.
The media spends so much time highlighting what is wrong with society. But sometime we should think about our great positive achievements, particularly those dependent on the active positive cooperation of mankind. Weather prediction surely is one of them.
Landing a man on the moon, was in many ways, a less impressive
achievement than modern weather prediction.
Modern weather prediction is perhaps the most cooperative activity of our species. To forecast the weather anywhere on the globe require weather data everywhere on the globe. A disturbance over China today, can be over the U.S. in a few days, and vice versa. Even during the cold war we shared data with China and the Soviet Union. Nearly every nation exchanges its weather data with others, with few exceptions (like North Korea).
Modern weather prediction requires the ability to simulate atmospheric effects on a vast range of scales ranging from the molecular to the planetary. To predict the weather one must deal with the condensation of water vapor on microscopic particles less than a micron (millionth of a meter) in size on one hand to planetary circulations of many thousands of kilometers on the other.
Modern weather prediction uses the world's most powerful computers and the associated model software includes millions of lines of code. Some of the biggest computers in the world are used for weather/climate simulation. For example, the UK Meteorology Office just purchased a 16 petaflop computer from CRAY (a petaflop is a thousand trillion operations per second).
Seattle's CRAY Supercomputers have become the hardware of choice for leading numerical weather prediction efforts
The number of lives saved and the economic value of weather prediction is beyond measure. Superstorm Sandy hit the NY Metro area, home of tens of millions of people, with hurricane-force winds and major coastal flooding. Roughly 150 lost their lives and many of them did so because they ignored the forecasts. A similar storm hit a far more sparsely populated area of eastern Long Island in 1938 and over a thousand people perished. In 1900, a hurricane hit Galveston Texas and 6000 people died. Weather prediction is now an essential tool for farmers and for those that manage our dams and roads, to mention only a few applications. And if the weather becomes more extreme under global warming, improved weather prediction will play a large role in protecting life and property.
The amount of data collected for operational numerical weather prediction is staggering. Petabytes of weather data are streaming to earth from dozens of weather satellites each day. Hundreds of thousands of surface stations, roughly a thousand radiosondes, thousands of ships and buoys, thousands of aircraft, lightning detection networks, and other sensors are reporting each day, adding up to tens to hundreds terabytes of information daily. All this data is distributed around the world, quality controlled, and used to provide a physically consistent description of the three-dimensional atmosphere.
A NOAA Polar Orbiter Weather Satellite
Modern numerical forecasting went from non-existent in 1950 to highly skillful today. The following chart is my favorite. It shows increasing skill at 3, 5, 7, and 10 days at 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) at one major forecasting center (the European Center, ECMWF). Major increases in skill at each time projection (up is better). But even more impressive is the fact that southern hemisphere forecast skill (the lower lines for each color band) now equals to the northern (which has much surface and upper air observations). The major reason: weather satellites
So during this end-of-year season it is good to reflect on how far we have come in weather prediction, even though we have the potential to push the science and technology much further. And we should not forget the dedicated folks that developed the models, the scientists/engineers that designed the satellites and observing systems, and the human forecasters that interpret and communicate the model output. A huge and expensive enterprise that is worth the investment. And one that has been been a successful partnership between the government and private sectors.
The media spends so much time highlighting what is wrong with society. But sometime we should think about our great positive achievements, particularly those dependent on the active positive cooperation of mankind. Weather prediction surely is one of them.
2014 Lower Valley Weather Summaries
Following are the Weather Station summaries for Thayne Elementary School, Etna Elementary School and the Town of Star Valley Ranch for the year 2014.
Note that the 171 MPH wind on April 18th is an error.
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| Star Valley Ranch 2014 |
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| Star Valley Ranch Wind 2014 |
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| Thayne ES 2014 |
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| Thayne ES Wind 2014 |
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| Etna ES 2014 |
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| Etna ES Wind 2014 |
2014 Ends With Extreme Cold
2014 Ends with Extreme Cold
It was a chilly Tuesday night (Dec 30 - Dec 31) with extreme cold temperatures felt across western & central Wyoming. The cooperative site at Daniel in the Upper Green River Basin bottomed out at 48 below zero. Below is a quick summary of the lows that occurred Tuesday night.
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| A complete listing of lows for December 31st. |
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